TURKEY'S INTEREST AS A MEDIATOR IN THE RUSSIA-UKRAINE CONFLICT IN MAINTAINING SOUTHEAST EUROPEAN REGIONAL SECURITY STABILITY

Abstract

This research analyzes Turkey's mediation role in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, focusing on its fundamental interest in maintaining regional security stability in Southeastern Europe. Russia's invasion of Ukraine in 2022 drastically transformed the Black Sea Regional Security Complex (RSC) into a zone of confrontation, creating direct military, economic, and social threats to Turkey's national security. Using a qualitative descriptive-analytical method with the framework of Regional Security Complex Theory (RSCT) and Conflict Resolution Theory, this study examines how Turkey responded to the crisis. The analysis reveals that Turkey's mediation role is not a passive neutrality policy, but an active and rational conflict management strategy. By leveraging its unique position as a NATO member that maintains dialogue with both Russia and Ukraine, Turkey implemented a series of tiered mediation interventions: political (negotiations in Istanbul), functional (the Black Sea Grain Initiative), and humanitarian (prisoner of war exchanges). These actions successfully de-securitized key threats and managed the patterns of enmity within the RSC. This study concludes that Turkey's role as a mediator is a manifestation of its national interest in preventing the collapse of the regional order, which directly ensures its own security and stability.